Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Betfair


News today is that Betfair are now operating within Australia. For the uninitiated, Betfair works as a peer-to-peer betting exchange (kinda like stock exchange) where, rather than betting against a bookmaker, you bet against anonymous punters.

The upside is, you get to bet on losses.

So, for the cynical-types (not me, never!), you get to put your money where your mouth is.

Example 1:
You're a mad West Coast fan, and you're still bitter about the game that never happened at the MCG on the last Saturday of last September. You've spent the whole off-season rubbishing the Premiers, claiming they'll never be seen there again. Well! Now you can go to Betfair, and place a "lay" bet for Sydney to win the Premiership (as opposed to a "back" bet) at the odds of 11.
Now, my maths might be dodgy, but you can determine an equivalent "TAB-style" price with the formula: TAB-Style Price = Betfair Lay Odds / (Betfair Lay Odds - 1).
So, you can get $1.10 for Sydney not to win next year's premiership. No doubt, there will be Final 8 markets up soon (Quick calculation: TAB has Sydney at $1.43 to make the 8. By my maths, that's roughly equivalent to $3.30 on a "lay" bet. That sounds devilishly attractive...)

Example 2:
You're sick of hearing how this year is "Freo's big chance". Well! Again, the Final 8 odds aren't up on Betfair yet, but TAB has them at $1.85 to make it. Equivalent Betfair "lay" price: $2.18. Mmmmmwwwwaaaahhhhhaaaaahahahah.

Example 3:
You have a good laugh every two years when the Round Ball media talk up England's chances of winning the World Cup/Euro Championship. Well! You can take the 8.4 "lay" bet for England to Win 2006 World Cup (equivalent price: $1.14). Or, the 4.6 "lay" to make the Final (equiv: $1.27). Better still, try the "Win Group B" "lay" at 1.77 (equiv: $2.30), which is basically saying Sweden will beat them in their group match.

The downside is, you have to outlay some decent money to get anything back with odds like those. Over the course of a year, I only bet about $100, and exclusively on $3 and upwards prices (I love an upset!).

What was that Gambler's Helpline number again?...

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